Today’s Nugget:
If you understand the business cycle, you understand crypto markets.
If you understand the ISM, you understand the business cycle.
Everything else?
Just noise.
Today we’re diving into why the ISM (Purchasing Managers’ Index) is the single best cheat code for predicting Bitcoin dominance, altcoin season, and bear markets.
Let’s break it down:
The ISM Is the Real Signal
Every major bull and bear market in crypto tracks the ISM almost perfectly.
Here’s the rulebook:
ISM Rising Below 50: Bitcoin outperforms.
ISM Crosses Above 50: Altcoins outperform hard.
ISM Peaks and Turns Down: Bear market incoming. Bitcoin and altcoins both bleed.
It’s been this way for a decade — no guessing needed.
Visual Proof:
This image shows the ISM’s cycles aligned almost perfectly with every crypto cycle since 2013.
Notice how each bull and bear market mirrors the ISM’s movement?
Bitcoin vs Altcoins — When to Know Who Outperforms
When ISM < 50 and rising:
Bitcoin dominates. Safer, larger assets move first.
When ISM > 50 and climbing:
Altcoins catch fire. This is when the crazy upside happens in smaller caps.
When ISM > 50 but rolling over:
Altcoins peak, Bitcoin peaks — then comes the pain.
Visual Proof:
Every time the ISM crosses above 50, altcoins lead the charge.
Every time it dips below, altcoins get absolutely wrecked.
It’s not random.
It’s the business cycle in action.
Total Crypto Market Ex Bitcoin — ISM Correlation
To really hammer this home, here’s the crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin mapped against the ISM.
Notice:
Altcoin strength kicks in right as ISM crosses 50.
Massive altcoin runs happen when ISM stays elevated.
Altcoin season collapses when ISM starts falling below 50.
Visual Proof:
Same pattern. Every cycle. Like clockwork.
The Real Alpha: Leading Indicators of the ISM
Here’s where it gets even better:
You don’t even have to wait for the ISM to react —
you can predict it.
How?
By tracking financial conditions and liquidity:
Financial Conditions ➔ Liquidity ➔ ISM ➔ Crypto Markets
Financial conditions lead liquidity.
Liquidity leads the ISM.
The ISM leads Bitcoin and altcoins.
Translation:
Get ahead of financial conditions and you can front-run crypto market cycles before everyone else.
Final Nugget:
It’s all about the business cycle.
It’s always been about the business cycle.
Ignore the noise. Track the ISM. Front-run the moves.
If you want to actually understand where markets are headed next — and what assets to hold —
tomorrow’s CryptoNuggs newsletter is dropping a full deep dive on:
Financial conditions
Global liquidity trends
And how to position yourself before the crowd catches up.
Don’t miss it.
⚡ Stay ahead. Stay Nugg’d. Share this with someone still trying to predict crypto with meme lines and gut feelings.